During 2017-2023, Uzbekistan’s foreign trade increased 2.4 times
Uzbekistan is implementing measures aimed at liberalizing the economy and enhancing the competitiveness of export-oriented sectors. Within the framework of the "Uzbekistan-2030" Strategy, particular attention is paid to improving the country’s foreign economic activities and expanding international cooperation.
One of the primary goals of the Strategy is to create a diversified economic and foreign trade structure that enables Uzbekistan to address global and regional economic challenges more effectively. These include reducing customs duties and simplifying import and export procedures, which are intended to stimulate the growth of foreign economic activities.
Uzbekistan's foreign trade strategy focuses on establishing a sustainable and competitive economy capable of adapting to changes on the international stage and effectively utilizing its resources to achieve economic growth.
In 2023, the main export items included fruits and vegetables, precious metals, textiles, copper and copper products, as well as automotive parts. Among the most imported items were medicines, passenger cars, auto parts, oil, wheat, and smartphones.
To study the dynamics of foreign economic activity in detail, annual foreign trade volumes from 2017 to 2023 with Uzbekistan’s five largest trading partners, which account for the highest share in the country’s trade turnover, were analyzed.
Foreign Trade Dynamics
In recent years, Uzbekistan’s foreign trade has shown a steady trend of development. In 2023, compared to 2017, the country’s exports nearly doubled, imports tripled, and total foreign trade volume increased by 2.4 times.
The degree of freedom in the country’s foreign trade policy can be observed through the Trade Dependency Index or Trade Openness Index, which is calculated as the ratio of a country’s foreign trade indicators to its GDP. For Uzbekistan, this figure was 43% in 2017 and reached 69% in 2023.
Growth of Exports in Various Sectors
The dynamics of export growth reveal that the extensive reforms implemented since 2019 are yielding results. State subsidies, integrated "one-stop" customs systems, the exemption of exporters from customs duties, compensation for transportation costs, and numerous other export benefits are reflected in the country’s foreign trade trends.
Over the past six years (2017–2023), Uzbekistan's export indicators have increased by 98%. There has been a noticeable rise in the share of finished products, indicating a shift toward the export of higher-tech goods rather than raw materials.
Notable export items include internal combustion engines (1.3%), auto parts (1.2%), car bodies (0.74%), refrigeration equipment (0.68%), and others. Additionally, Uzbekistan holds a comparative advantage over other countries in products such as pure cotton yarn (172%), silk fabrics (85%), molybdenum (79%), wheat flour (65%), and grape products (39%).
In 2023, the largest export categories were precious metals ($8.15 billion), textile products ($1.19 billion), oil and gas ($529 million), wheat flour ($414 million), and fruits and vegetables.
New Export Directions
Between 2017 and 2023, Uzbekistan established the production of new export goods. These include products that were not exported in 2017 but brought significant revenue in 2023, such as chemical analysis instruments ($2.5 million), dyes ($6.9 million), agricultural equipment ($24.68 million), accounting equipment ($8.9 million), tires ($7.8 million), and others.
Uzbekistan's trade turnover in 2023 increased by 23.8%, reaching $62.6 billion, while the trade deficit hit a record $13.7 billion.
According to the Agency of Statistics, foreign trade turnover in 2023 rose by $12 billion, or 23.8%, compared to the previous year, reaching $62.57 billion.
The main export markets for fruits and vegetables were Russia (37%), Pakistan (16.7%), China (12.3%), and Kazakhstan (10.3%).
As a result of implementing the decree "On Measures for Further Support of Export Activities in 2020–2023," the total export volume of 68 grouped goods increased by 1.5 times.
Export Opportunities
Correlation index analysis reveals potential future export opportunities for Uzbekistan. According to this index, Uzbekistan has high export potential for goods such as chromite ore (0.23%), legumes (0.22%), spices (0.22%), and non-woven women’s suits (0.22%).
The Atlas of Economic Complexity indicates that Uzbekistan can relatively easily diversify its exports across 50 product categories. Although organizational efforts and actual exports require time, high-profitability items include auto parts, radio transmitters, pump compressors, traffic management systems, tractors, and furniture for textile, medical, veterinary, and dental purposes, among others.
Imports
As exports grow, the demand for imports naturally rises. Over six years, imports increased by 172%, but this figure includes value-added and re-exported goods. Thus, it is crucial to analyze the share of imports that satisfy the country's domestic demand.
In 2022, this indicator reached 30%, meaning nearly a third of consumed goods were imported.
The influx of foreign products has significantly impacted the market, bringing both positive and negative effects. On one hand, intensified competition lowered consumer prices and expanded the variety of goods available. On the other, it pushed local producers to improve quality and competitiveness.
The diverse range of imported goods reflects Uzbekistan’s growing demand for transportation, infrastructure, and energy resources. Notably, significant car imports indicate rising consumer spending and demand for foreign brands. Similarly, demand for aviation equipment reflects the growth of the domestic airline industry.
Key Trade Partners
During the analyzed period, trade turnover between Uzbekistan and China grew significantly, making China the country’s largest trade partner. Prior to this, in 2021–2022, Russia was the leading trade partner. As of 2023, Russia remains Uzbekistan’s second-largest partner. Together with Kazakhstan, Turkey, and South Korea, these countries form Uzbekistan’s top five trade partners.
In 2023, industrial product deliveries were primarily directed to Russia ($2.17 billion, 34.3%), China ($1.95 billion, 30.9%), Kazakhstan ($715.2 million, 11.3%), Turkey ($353.6 million, 5.6%), and South Korea ($209.6 million, 3.3%).
In 2023, Uzbekistan entered over 10 new markets, including Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Colombia, and Indonesia, increasing the number of countries importing Uzbek goods to 85.
At the beginning of 2024, demand for Uzbek-grown fruits and vegetables, as well as syrups and juices, surged in markets such as the UK, India, Canada, the US, Thailand, and Australia.
2,000 new enterprises joined export activities, the export geography expanded to 42 countries, and 59 types of products were exported for the first time.
Conclusion
The measures being implemented in Uzbekistan aim to create favorable conditions for doubling the export of finished products within the next two to three years.
Efforts to join the World Trade Organization (WTO) will establish a fair-trade system with 164 countries and create stable markets. Work is underway to harmonize national legislation, streamline procedures, and align standards with international requirements as part of WTO agreements.
Additionally, Uzbekistan’s participation in the EU's GSP+ program has provided the country with extra trade and economic opportunities. Numerous tariffs on products exported to European countries have been eliminated for Uzbekistan, which will further boost the country’s exports. Expected localization of production in Europe – such as in mechanical engineering, automotive manufacturing, high-tech goods, and medical equipment – will increase demand for various electronic components and metal parts.
Uzbekistan could further solidify its achievements and expand production of electronic products and small components by reducing operational costs.
Moreover, Europe’s transition to a "green" economy and diversification of metal supplies could further enhance Uzbekistan’s exports of metal products.
The production of export-oriented goods represents a key area of development for the country. This will be achieved by increasing the export potential of Uzbekistan’s economic sectors and regions, effectively utilizing these resources, focusing on attracting and developing investments (primarily FDI), and expanding the scope of localized production.
Abdurashid Bozorov,
Center for Economic Research and Reforms
